Homesteading and Survivalism

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Tag: food prices

Calm before the panic buying

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Calm before the SHTF panic stormThere is enough fear mongering these days without my help.  With that in mind, please remember that this article is just my personal opinion and it not meant to interpreted as fact.

I feel that we are in a calm before the storm. Not necessarily a SHTF storm, but a panic buying storm.

From August 2011 until the first part of 2012:

August and September:  Kids are starting back to school in the next few days, parents are having to buy back to school supplies, clothes, meet the teachers and get their kids shots caught up. Right “now” parents have a lot to think about and worry about besides prepping.

Labor day: is right around the corner.

October:  Halloween in October.

October and November: Hunting season starts.

November – thanksgiving.

December – Christmas and then New Years.

People have stuff to keep their minds occupied until the first part of 2012. After the turn of the year, I look for people attention to turn towards world events and the direction this nation is going.

After new years I think is when the panic buying mode is going to kick in – and especially after people start getting their income taxes back.

2012 – As 2012 progresses and the election season turns hostile, there is going to be a lot of propaganda on TV and the internet about the various people running for office. I look for this propaganda to have a side effect on the voters, and that is spreading fear through the general public.

I look for the debt talks to resume again, and I look for tension between the USA and the rest of the world (especially China) to increase.

Around April and May 2012 – is when I look for the panic buying to pick up, especially with the poor and low middle classes.  This is when people will start getting their income tax returns.  Instead of buying TVs, and other toys, people might turn to buying firearms, ammo and food.

Over the next few months (August – December 2011) people are going to be forking out money on school supplies, clothes, labor day, holidays, Christmas, new years,,,,,,,.   This is why I look for the “real” panic buying to kick in after people start getting their income taxes back in early – mid 2012.  Having to buy school supplies and getting ready for the holidays does not leave a lot of money for prepping.

My personal plan, and I am not suggesting that people do this, but buy whatever long term food supplies you can afford. If you have been thinking about buying #10 cans of freeze dried foods, please do so.

One of the issues with buying SHTF survival gear, it leaves less money for other stuff. Do not overspend on preps. Whenever possible, put money into a rainy day fund. If the federal government shuts the banks down, you want enough cash on hand for food and fuel.

When people start getting their income tax returns back, and have some extra money, that is when people might start buying in bulk.

Over the past few months I have been stockpiling fishing supplies like crazy. Everytime my wife and I went to the local sporting goods store I would grab some hooks, trotline string, artificial worms, extra monofilament line, new fishing pole and reel,,,,,.

On top of the fishing supplies I have been stocking up on food in mylar bags, canned goods and #10 cans.

Do I expect some kind of civil unrest, no,, or rather I hope not. With the extreme drought in Texas, crops are dying in the fields, and people are having to sell off their livestock, what kind of impact on food prices can we expect due to the failed crops, I do not know.

I want to be as honest as possible, and say right up front, I do not know what the future holds. I suspect food prices will go up, but only time will tell.

Over the next few months my preps will focus on food – and that means everything from mylar bags, to canned goods, to #10 cans of freeze dried foods.

In Short:
Save as money as possible
Buy as much food as your family can afford
Get caught up on your bills
Do not have any outstanding credit card bills
Do not have any high interest loans
Secure your possessions and your property
Communicate with your family about your plans

Post your comments in this forum thread about the calm before the storm.

Expect another bubble in 2011

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Expect another bubble in mid-late 2011, but this time in the heart of america – our farms and our breadbasket.  Over the past decade the prices of farmland has been steady rising.  This year, due to failed crops in Russia, prices are at a nice high – but its not going to last.  Because of the increased profits, farmers are spending more money, buying more equipment, and a lot of them are going deeper into debt.

All backed by the banks.

Article 1 – Analysis: In Midwest, a farmland bubble may be growing

Here is the problem, the currently high wheat and corn prices are being fueled by crop failures in Russia. Putin also signed an order blocking all grain exports until July 2011.

Article 2 – Russia to extend grain export ban until July 2011

So right now, not only is one of the worlds largest grain producers not producing, they also have an export embargo in place.

Lets say in 2011 Russia has a bumper crop of corn, wheat, grains,,,. In July 2011 Russia dumps all its extra produce on the world market, prices come crashing down. American farmers are not able to pay back their loans due to the low market prices.

And it does not have to be Russia either.  Lets say that China decides to get into corn, wheat or grain production on a massive scale.  China has an almost unlimited work force, so why not use them for cheap labor.  Instead of growing food here in the USA, why not have it grown overseas and shipped back?  Everything else is made in China, why not the majority of our food?

Bubble pops.

Banks foreclose on small farms and sell the land to developers or large company controlled farms.

Good-bye vast majority of small family owned farmers.

When are people going to learn to stay out of debt?

Post your comments in this forum thread about the coming 2011 breadbasket bubble.

2009 food prices

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An article posted on MSN should be great concern to everyone that eats some kind of food.

Nothing but worse for Texas drought

According to that article, 97% of Texas is in a drought. Some people might be saying “so what?” Well, there is a lot to be worried about. Texas is the 2nd largest agricultural state in the nation. Everything from beef to zucchini is grown in Texas. That means, if Texas has a bad drought, and crops fail, the price of food goes up nation wide – maybe even on a global scale.

With so many people out of work, high food prices is the one thing we do not need right now.

The concern should not only on on Texas, but other states and nations.  If the crops from one state fails, the markets will have some degree of flexibility.  But, if crops fail in several states, or, if the crops fail in several nations fail across the world, things could get bad.

This is the kind of stuff that can cause panic buying.  Whether there is actually a food shortage or not, really does not really matter.  There will be people out there that go into a buying frenzy at the slightest mention of “shortage”.  The panic buying, coupled with a slight food shortage can equal a moderate to large major food shortage.

If your concerned about the future price of food, consider planting a home garden.

On a personal note, I am not too worried about the food supply, I am more worried about the panic buying like what happened in the summer of 2008.  Some large discount stores had to limit the amount of beans and rice that people could buy.  Mainly because of people buying 100 – 200 pounds of rice at a time.  There was a small shortage that turned into a moderate shortage and nation wide panic – partially due to crop failure and partially due to panic buying on a massive scale.

  While driving around East Texas, it looks like more fields are being plowed this year, as compared to 2008. Hopefully more families will be planting a garden this year.

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